Sunday, May 15, 2005

A Science Failure Story

Do Lemmings Commit Suicide?
Beautiful Hypotheses and Ugly Facts
by Dennis Chitty

You can read a detailed review of this book if you care about population ecology. I don't really. So why did I read this book? It was referenced in another one I read recently (How Science Works: Evaluating Evidence in Biology and Medicine by Stephen H. Jenkins). I thought to myself, "I want to know if lemmings commit suicide." So I read it.

The good news is, I now know that lemmings do not commit suicide. It is clear that lemming populations (and vole populations, on which most of the book is focused) have cycles in population numbers. It is also clear no one really knows how or why. (I tried doing a little web search to see if progress had been made since 1996, when the book was published. I couldn't find any great insights, but I also didn't look that hard.)

Dr. Chitty admits from the very beginning that this is a book of "failure." He does try to succinctly describe the path research has taken since population ecology was first addressed and to lay out the map for future research (as he sees it). What I found refreshing was his honest presentation of his biases. All scientists have biases which affect what data are presented and how data are explained, but most never share them. I also found the book an interesting look at a philosophy of science in action. Finally, Dr. Chitty is amusing:

At each mention of the Chitty Hypothesis faculty and students bow their heads and cross themselves to the accompaniment of religious music.
Stage directions for a student skit by Maura MacInnis and Jordan Rosenfeld at UBC in December 1993

So, should you read the book? If you're interested in voles or lemmings, yes. If you're interested in population ecology in general, yes. If you're interested in the history or philosophy of science, sure. Otherwise, content yourself with the knowledge that lemmings do not plunge over cliffs in great numbers. The cartoon is still funny, though.

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